As the draft approaches, speculation on who the Chiefs will take, with the #5 pick, has become a coffee time staple. One of the obvious options is an OT. The following, long, article is by Justin Long, used with permission
While many of us have our personal ideas about whom the Chiefs should target with their first draft pick, I’ve noticed so many thoughts, quips, disagreements coming more or less with the valuation of the Tackle position in regards of the draft.
I have taken a selection of tackles drafted in the top fifteen picks in the first round from 2000-2009. I feel that this decade should be highlighted due to the fact that we’ve seen more of a pass-happy league, where the LT has become a vital component to any successful offensive line.
The list:
2000 – Chris Samuels (Redskins) #3 Overall
2001 – Kenyatta Walker(Bucs) #14 Overall
2002 – Mike Williams (Bills) #4 Overall
2002 – Bryant McKinnie (Vikings) #7 Overall
2002 -Levi Jones(Cincinnati) #10 Overall
2003 - Jordan Gross (Panthers) #8 Overall
2004 – Robert Gallery (Raiders) #2 Overall
2005 – Jamaal Brown (Saints) #13 Overall
2006 – D’Brickashaw Ferguson (Jets) #4 Overall
2007 – Joe Thomas (Browns) #3 Overall
2007 -Levi Brown (Cardinals) #5 Overall
2008 – Jake Long (Dolphins) #1 Overall
2008 – Ryan Clady (Broncos) #12 Overall
2008 – Branden Albert (Chiefs) #15 Overall
2009 – Jason Smith (Rams) #2 Overall
2009 – Andre Smith(Cincinnatti) #6 Overall
2009 - Eugene Monroe (Jaguars) #8 Overall
17 Tackles taken in the upper half of the first round in the past 10 years.
While being named to the all-pro team doesn’t necessarily quantify how good of a year each and every lineman has had, it’s practically the best way to determine status amongst where they stand skill-wise against the rest of the league. That I’ve found so far.
Pro Bowlers on this list:
2002: Chris Samuels
2003: Chris Samuels
2007: Jamaal Brown
2008: Joe Thomas, Jordan Gross
2009: Jake Long, Ryan Clady, Bryant McKinnie**
*Technically, you can consider D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Levi Brown as
all-pros, however they were brought in under “reserve” circumstances.
**Super Technically that doesn’t count because he got kicked off of the team
To me, when I was doing my research I just found that to be absolutely stunning. Not knowing the professional history of every guy on this list, I took a deeper look. The myth I’m trying to debunk or prove right is the addage of drafting a marquee LT prospect equates to a decade of not having to worry about your QB’s rear.
Out of the entire list, one of the highest decorated was the man who stood alone in the 2000 Draft, Chris Samuels. A six (6) time Pro-Bowler, you can safely say that was a wise investment made by the Redskins.
The next year, in ‘01, The Tampa Bay Bucaneers selected Florida Gator Tackle Kenyatta Walker with pick #14. He started at LT for his rookie year and was quickly shelved over to the RT position, where he played the rest of his career there. He only spent 01-06 with his original team before spending a training camp with the Carolina Panthers before being cut before the season began, then couldn’t even make a squad in the CFL, being on the practice squad for a year before finally calling it quits. I’d say it’s safe to assume that this one, my friends, was a bust.
Jeff Backus was still available until pick #18.
Matt Light was available until the second round.
The draft class of 2002 was “Stacked” and, I believe, is a good comparison to this year’s draft class. First off of the boards was Mike Williams from the University of Texas. At 6-6 and 375 pounds, Mike Williams did not allow a sack in his final two seasons as a Longhorn. Most NFL teams had him rated as the top offensive lineman of the draft just as they had the Longhorns’ Leonard Davis the previous year. ESPN’s Mel KiperJr. declared him “nimble” with”enough polish to step in and be an immediate starter and anchor on the Bills’ offensive line.” He received a $10.5 Million signing bonus. he managed to stay on the team through 2005. He spent a year with the Jags, then was out of football until he tried to make a comeback last year. Then he got injured. Another bust. That’s 2-1 in favor of busts at this point if you’re keeping score at home.
Bryant McKinnie was taken at #7 by the Vikings. He has been a very solid blocker for their team for years, and although he hasn’t had the cleanest off-of-the-field record (getting kicked off of the all-pro squad this year and the boat scandal), you could see this as a fairly decent return on investment here. With a top 10 pick, they’ve received 7 years of him starting every game but 1 (he won the starting role his second year in the league I believe), he’s been reliable at the very worst.
Up next from this class is Levi Jones, who for various reasons went much earlier than many of the pundits thought. I referenced a few archives of various mock drafts available online and found that many people had him at a late first round target in the range of 26-30. Perhaps at the time it was considered a reach (the best, and most amusing from a Chiefs fan perspective is at http://www.joltcountry.com/features/2002draft.html** especially look at what they say about arizona’sprojected pick. It may make it actually worth reading this article) However, when he can stay in the game he’s a good, reliable tackle. The problem is that he’s only managed to stay healthy throughout his first three seasons as a pro. Since 2005, he’s missed a total of 27 games, also missing time in at least 6 others (indicated by not starting, but playing) — which is 33 games in 4 the last 4 years he saw no or limited action. Average out to 8 games a year..and that’s not very good return on your contractual investment. This draft pick would probably go down as a ‘tweener on the bust scale in my opinion.
2003 saw a bit of an anomaly in the Carolina Panthers drafting Jordan Gross #8 overall to be their Right Tackle. Jordan was great at Utah in a medley of positions on both sides of the line during his time in college. He did spend one season at left tackle, but predominantly he was on the right-side of the offensive line — either guard or tackle. His versatility was probably why he went so high here, in retrospect. He started his rookie season at Right Tackle and did not miss a single snap. The next year there was a big shakeup, post Super Bowl (as it goes) and they lost a lot of guys on the line. Gross moved to LT for that year, and moved back over to the right side the following year. Since then he’s been very good, highlighted by his 2008 Pro-Bowl selection.
The following year, Oakland drafted “Can’t-Miss future HOF’er” Robert Gallery at #2 overall in the 2004 NFL Draft.
From: http://football.about.com/cs/playerprofiles/p/robertgallery.htm
Positives: Gallery is by far the best true left tackle in the draft. He has a big frame with long arms and is very athletic for his size. He possesses good quickness, agility, and speed. He’s a great pass blocker, but he also a very effective run blocker. He has great footwork and uses his hands well… delivers a very effective punch. He works very hard on every play and finishes well. Very competitive… attacks the defender.
Negatives: There are no major weaknesses in his game.
From: Peter King http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1031881/index.htm
“Whoever drafts him is going to get a 15-year Pro Bowl player,” says Washington Redskins offensive line coach Joe Bugel. “I can’t find anything wrong withhim.” In a draft top-heavy with players who should have immediate impact in the NFL, there’s no surer thing than the 6′7″, 323-pound Gallery—the Outland Trophy winner who might be the best all-around tackle to enter the pros since the Jacksonville Jaguars took Tony Boselli with the second pick in 1995.
That club will get a feisty, technically sound worker bee withtremendous strength. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz, who as a Baltimore Ravens assistant was All-Pro left tackle Jonathan Ogden’s first NFL position coach, says Gallery compares more favorably with Boselli, the five-time Pro Bowl selection who retired last year because of a chronic shoulder injury, than withOgden. “I don’t know of any tackle who is as smooth and athletic and strong as Jonathan,” says Ferentz. “Robert and Tony are more physical, more emotional, and they dominate like Jonathan.”
Most people can tell you how sure-fire he’s been in the Silver & Black. He has, however recently started to play well with a shift to the LG position. But, too little, too late I’m afraid as he’s now a Free Agent.
The man who Gallery was succeeded by winning the Outland Trophy and the only OT taken in the top 15 in the 2005 Draft is Jamaal Brown out of Oklahoma. Unlike Robert Gallery, Jamaal has found reputable success in the NFL. Although he has yet to finish a complete season starting every game, he has managed to make the Pro-Bowl in 2007. After missing the 2009 season with injury, he looks to bounce back this year. When healthy, he’s one of the better Left Tackles in the league.
In 2006, the New York Jets used their 4th overall First Round pick on Virgina product D’Brickashaw Ferguson. Highly touted as a college prospect, he has started every game since coming into the league. So far it looks like this move is paying dividends for the Jets.
2007 Saw the first tackle go off of the board when the Cleveland Browns selected Joe Thomas with the third pick in the draft. Again, the highest rated Lineman in the draft again. There wasn’t much of a stretch. To be second in ROY voting as an offensive lineman? Let alone a LT. Fantastic. This pick looks just as good as any, and he’s also made the Pro-Bowl in 2008.
Levi Brown was taken a few spots later at #5 to the Arizona Cardinals. Thought to be the second best, but still rated high enough to be slated in the top half by most pundits also, this was what a lot of people expected to happen. However, He’s starting at the Right Tackle position. I believe he would be seen as a reach — to judge him from so far. He is starting for the team, and thus producing well enough to make it to the playoffs the last two seasons, so that can be said as well. I guess the jury is still out on this one.
The following year, in 2008 First overall pick Jake Longwent to the Miami Dolphins. Allowing just one sack in his senior season, many people were just oozing to get their hands on this prospect (myself included). Bill Parcells went and snatched him up and had a contract ready by the time the lights went on the podium at the Radio City Music Hall. Already being selected to the Pro-Bowl in 2009 and helping a one win team go to the playoffs the following year behind a controlled offense predicated on balance and running the ball, it appears that Jake Long was the right selection for the ‘phins.
Ryan Clady, a Boise State product was taken by the Broncos at #12. The big mauler has almost as well, if not better than his comrade in Jake Long, being selected to the same Pro Bowl in ‘09. Through his first 20 games, he allowed 1.5 sacks. That is impressive. Absolutely stunning pick by the Broncos.
Branden Albert, the much discussed (and inspiration behind this article) Left Tackle of the Chiefs was selected #15 overall. The farthest back on this list drafted (which should bring light to the discussion of value) switched from playing Guard (most likely due to being sandwiched between D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Eugene Monroe) to Tackle in circumstance of 2 game injury to Eugene Monroe. His lateral quickness and hand-control make him a natural candidate for a Left Tackle. However, I feel that in case of transitioning, there needs to be a little seasoning time.
In the last year, we saw three Tackles taken in the top 10.
Jason Smith, Andre Smith, and Eugene Monroe. While they have just now finished their first year in the pros, they are more or less a mention. However, it should be noted that Jason Smith has started 5 games, Andre Smith has started 1. Eugene Monroe has started 13.
With these things in mind here are a few numbers I’m going to throw out at you.
Taking away the last 3 draft classes (Giving them the 3 years to pan out for a grade) this is 2000-2006. projections for 07-09
Busts – Kenyatta Walker (14), Mike Williams (4), Robert Gallery (2), Jason Smith (2), Andre Smith (6)
Blossoms – Chris Samuels (3), Bryant McKinnie (7), Jamaal Brown (13), D’Brickashaw Ferguson (4), Jake Long (1), Ryan Clady (12), Joe Thomas (3)
Outlier – Jordan Gross ( 8 )[selected as RT, but still performs well], Branden Albert (15)[switching positions, not three years in, hard to tell]
Servicable – Levi Jones (10), Levi Brown (5)
To me it’s interesting that out of the busts, the most pronounced were highly regarded picks.
Also, a few of the “second-rate” guys have made the list as well.
There you have it. Sources vary. Stats mostly from nfl.com when available.
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